The SP500 Index MACD technical indicator gave a SELL signal this past week.
Sunday, 30 December 2012
Saturday, 29 December 2012
Saturday 29December 2012 - Investment Income Ideas!
Alberta Oil and Gas production companies for the past few years have been an under performing sector to have invested in. And there are a couple of reasons why:
1) Natural gas wholesale prices have declined from $12+ to the $2-4 range per unit.
2) Alberta crude oil (convential and tar sands) is moving at $50 - 65/barrel which is well below WTI at recent $85+/barrel. Why? The promised pipelines are not anywhere near approval let alone constuction to move the ever increasing Alberta oil sands production to refineries in Texas.
3) Questions for Another Day? Why does Canada (Alberta) not also build refineries to process oil into gasoline, diesel fuel, and byproducts for the chemical industries and export/sell them at world market prices?? Alberta should be the Texas of Canada. ??
This disconnect has provided some huge divergences between Alberta oil and gas producers and the major stock market indexes that are near multi year recovery highs in a 20 year secular bear market.
I will discuss one stock to illustrate the point. I have owned this stock in years past when it was an income trust and am now considering repositioning into it.
Disclaimer: This is NOT a recommendation to buy this stock. Consult with your own investment advisor and/or do your own due diligence.
Enerplus Corp (TSX-ERF) Also trades on the NYSE.
Market Cap: $2.5Billion.
Current Share Price: $12.50 Current Dividend: $1.08/Yr Current Yield (COC): 8.6%
Production: 2013 Estimated 84+ thousand barrels oil equivalent per day
This company has been very hardhit by first being overweight in natural gas production and recent low Alberta prices for wellhead oil. Enerplus is NOT in the oil sands production space so has the flexibility to gradually reposition its production base. The company continues to sell non producing assets and reposition and consolidate growing positions in the Bakken Field areas of North Dakota including the Fort Berkhold fields in North Dakota (now 14% of company production) and the Sleeping Giant Fields in Montana. Current production is now 50/50 oil/gas production.
As one can see from the included 9 year price chart Enerplus has seen a huge drop in share price from $65 to the current $12 range. As well in Auguest 2012 Enerplus cut its dividend by 50% from $2.16/Year to $1.08/Year. Also on the negative side the estimated 2013 payout ratio is 130%.
This stock and others like it are a buy for investors who can accept the risk. IE: If the current business plan does NOT develop as planned and the company cuts its dividend another 50% to .54/Year and the stock could drop to $6.
Click on chart to enlarge.
Click on chart to enlarge.
Alberta Oil and Gas production companies for the past few years have been an under performing sector to have invested in. And there are a couple of reasons why:
1) Natural gas wholesale prices have declined from $12+ to the $2-4 range per unit.
2) Alberta crude oil (convential and tar sands) is moving at $50 - 65/barrel which is well below WTI at recent $85+/barrel. Why? The promised pipelines are not anywhere near approval let alone constuction to move the ever increasing Alberta oil sands production to refineries in Texas.
3) Questions for Another Day? Why does Canada (Alberta) not also build refineries to process oil into gasoline, diesel fuel, and byproducts for the chemical industries and export/sell them at world market prices?? Alberta should be the Texas of Canada. ??
This disconnect has provided some huge divergences between Alberta oil and gas producers and the major stock market indexes that are near multi year recovery highs in a 20 year secular bear market.
I will discuss one stock to illustrate the point. I have owned this stock in years past when it was an income trust and am now considering repositioning into it.
Disclaimer: This is NOT a recommendation to buy this stock. Consult with your own investment advisor and/or do your own due diligence.
Enerplus Corp (TSX-ERF) Also trades on the NYSE.
Market Cap: $2.5Billion.
Current Share Price: $12.50 Current Dividend: $1.08/Yr Current Yield (COC): 8.6%
Production: 2013 Estimated 84+ thousand barrels oil equivalent per day
This company has been very hardhit by first being overweight in natural gas production and recent low Alberta prices for wellhead oil. Enerplus is NOT in the oil sands production space so has the flexibility to gradually reposition its production base. The company continues to sell non producing assets and reposition and consolidate growing positions in the Bakken Field areas of North Dakota including the Fort Berkhold fields in North Dakota (now 14% of company production) and the Sleeping Giant Fields in Montana. Current production is now 50/50 oil/gas production.
As one can see from the included 9 year price chart Enerplus has seen a huge drop in share price from $65 to the current $12 range. As well in Auguest 2012 Enerplus cut its dividend by 50% from $2.16/Year to $1.08/Year. Also on the negative side the estimated 2013 payout ratio is 130%.
This stock and others like it are a buy for investors who can accept the risk. IE: If the current business plan does NOT develop as planned and the company cuts its dividend another 50% to .54/Year and the stock could drop to $6.
Click on chart to enlarge.
Click on chart to enlarge.
Thursday, 27 December 2012
Thursday 27December2012 - Chart of the Day!
From zerohedge.com
In Late 2006, the S&P 500 futures market traded around 1435 and the commitment of traders was at an extreme net long position. The market fell shortly after only to manage a miraculous rise in the face of hedge funds going bust and an exploding and over-leveraged credit market. In mid-2008, the S&P 500 futures also traded around these levels, from where the epic collapse really began. Six years later, the S&P 500 futures traders are the most bullishly positioned they have been since those heady over-confident days. Still believe the talking heads that there is money on the sidelines waiting to be put to work? Still convinced that there will be some epic rally if the 'fiscal cliff' fallacy is resolved? Positioning (real money) trumps Sentiment (AAII surveys etc.) every day in our book. The Bernank will be pleased at his success.
From zerohedge.com
In Late 2006, the S&P 500 futures market traded around 1435 and the commitment of traders was at an extreme net long position. The market fell shortly after only to manage a miraculous rise in the face of hedge funds going bust and an exploding and over-leveraged credit market. In mid-2008, the S&P 500 futures also traded around these levels, from where the epic collapse really began. Six years later, the S&P 500 futures traders are the most bullishly positioned they have been since those heady over-confident days. Still believe the talking heads that there is money on the sidelines waiting to be put to work? Still convinced that there will be some epic rally if the 'fiscal cliff' fallacy is resolved? Positioning (real money) trumps Sentiment (AAII surveys etc.) every day in our book. The Bernank will be pleased at his success.
Tuesday, 25 December 2012
Tusday - 25December2012 - Merry Christmas!
Wishing You and Family a Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2013.
Wishing You and Family a Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2013.
The Piano Guys perform ‘We Three Kings’ at the outdoor Citi Pond Ice Rink
at Bryant Park in midtown Manhattan, New York City.
Use direct web link here; play button in photo is not active. In HD so
plays well at full screen.
Friday, 21 December 2012
Saturday, 15 December 2012
Saturday 15Dec2012 - What's The Fix?
The United States has very serious financial problems with a federal budget ($3.8 Trillion) totally out of balance with spending exceeding revenue ($2.47 Trillion) by 1.3 trillion dollars.
Here are the numbers.
How would you balance the budget with a combination of revenue increases and budget cuts.
2012 Budget Spending:
The United States has very serious financial problems with a federal budget ($3.8 Trillion) totally out of balance with spending exceeding revenue ($2.47 Trillion) by 1.3 trillion dollars.
Here are the numbers.
How would you balance the budget with a combination of revenue increases and budget cuts.
2012 Budget Spending:
Friday, 14 December 2012
Friday 14Dec2012 - Just the Facts!
From Casey Research Daily Dispatch.
In the months leading up to the US presidential election, the unemployment rate fell below the 8% mark - rather conveniently, some obstinate anti-Obama observers observed. Turns out they may have been right. Here's another snippet, from CNSNews.com, also forwarded by David Franklin earlier this week...
From Casey Research Daily Dispatch.
In the months leading up to the US presidential election, the unemployment rate fell below the 8% mark - rather conveniently, some obstinate anti-Obama observers observed. Turns out they may have been right. Here's another snippet, from CNSNews.com, also forwarded by David Franklin earlier this week...
73% of New Jobs Created in Last 5 Months
Are in Government
In June, a total of 142,415,000 people were employed in the US, according to the BLS, including 19,938,000 who were employed by federal, state and local governments. By November, according to data BLS released today, the total number of people employed had climbed to 143,262,000, an overall increase of 847,000 in the six months since June.
In June, a total of 142,415,000 people were employed in the US, according to the BLS, including 19,938,000 who were employed by federal, state and local governments. By November, according to data BLS released today, the total number of people employed had climbed to 143,262,000, an overall increase of 847,000 in the six months since June.
In the same five-month period since June, the
number of people employed by government increased by 621,000 to 20,559,000.
These 621,000 new government jobs created in the last five months equal 73.3
percent of the 847,000 new jobs created overall.
Read the full article here.
Friday, 7 December 2012
Friday 07December2012 - Changing Perceptions!
From Jack Crooks at Blackswan Capital.
The euro tanks on "downgrade"
What did we know and when did we know it? Why such a big surprise to market players the European Central Bank (ECB) would downgrade its assessment of the Eurozone economy? And why is it a surprise the ECB may cut interest rates accordingly the next time around? Funny thing sentiment; isn’t it.
No doubt sentiment for the Eurozone has been high in light of sharp decline in bond yields throughout zone. But falling bond yields do little in the near-term to help generate real growth, which is what the Eurozone is struggling to achieve.
Now, can the euro finally do what it is destined to do, i.e.
fall sharply against the US dollar on declining growth and yield differentials? I sure think so and it is why Black Swan members are short euro as a core long-term trade. As much as I hate to use this word—inflexion point, maybe we are there now and the euro can fall much lower even without the key driver being the risk of breakup.
From Jack Crooks at Blackswan Capital.
The euro tanks on "downgrade"
What did we know and when did we know it? Why such a big surprise to market players the European Central Bank (ECB) would downgrade its assessment of the Eurozone economy? And why is it a surprise the ECB may cut interest rates accordingly the next time around? Funny thing sentiment; isn’t it.
No doubt sentiment for the Eurozone has been high in light of sharp decline in bond yields throughout zone. But falling bond yields do little in the near-term to help generate real growth, which is what the Eurozone is struggling to achieve.
Now, can the euro finally do what it is destined to do, i.e.
fall sharply against the US dollar on declining growth and yield differentials? I sure think so and it is why Black Swan members are short euro as a core long-term trade. As much as I hate to use this word—inflexion point, maybe we are there now and the euro can fall much lower even without the key driver being the risk of breakup.
Friday, 30 November 2012
Friday 30November2012 - What About the US Fiscal Cliff?
From Danielle Park Juggling Dynamite website.
If the entire “fiscal cliff” hits in January, the total cash flow improvement to the US is estimated at $671 billion. Presently the government is spending about 1 trillion a year more than it is taking in. So best case scenario for the debt issue, is that they come to no agreement and the full “cliff” does hit in the New Year. But this will still add at least 400 billion to the the US 16 trillion dollar national debt tab in 2013. And this deficit will certainly grow larger either way in 2013, as GDP weakens amid the global recession.
From Danielle Park Juggling Dynamite website.
If the entire “fiscal cliff” hits in January, the total cash flow improvement to the US is estimated at $671 billion. Presently the government is spending about 1 trillion a year more than it is taking in. So best case scenario for the debt issue, is that they come to no agreement and the full “cliff” does hit in the New Year. But this will still add at least 400 billion to the the US 16 trillion dollar national debt tab in 2013. And this deficit will certainly grow larger either way in 2013, as GDP weakens amid the global recession.
Friday 30November2012 - What Next?
From Danielle Park re comments by David Walker, former US comproller general, and now CEO of the Comeback America Initiative.
It is also critical to understand that there are some 10,000 people turning 65 in America each day now. In many ways the budget fight at hand is not between the left and the right, but between the old and the young. Boomers on both sides want their tax savings and all of their social benefits too. Meanwhile this is a generation who have eaten their cake for years now, indulging their wants while setting aside very little for the future. Their expectations are simply crushing the financial viability of the nation. Now milked dry, it is time to feed the cow.
From Danielle Park re comments by David Walker, former US comproller general, and now CEO of the Comeback America Initiative.
It is also critical to understand that there are some 10,000 people turning 65 in America each day now. In many ways the budget fight at hand is not between the left and the right, but between the old and the young. Boomers on both sides want their tax savings and all of their social benefits too. Meanwhile this is a generation who have eaten their cake for years now, indulging their wants while setting aside very little for the future. Their expectations are simply crushing the financial viability of the nation. Now milked dry, it is time to feed the cow.
Wednesday, 28 November 2012
Wednesday 28November2012 - What Next?
From Western Unions Monday World Market Update.
Catalonian voters delivered victory to separatist parties in a regional election last night, raising the likelihood that Spain's strongest regional economy will hold an independence referendum in the near future.
On the surface, it seems that this should trigger significant volatility in the euro. After all, Spain has long tended to bear a strong resemblance to the former Yugoslavia. Tito's iron fist kept the country unified (at great cost), but once it was removed, the ties that bound different groups together began to fray— eventually leading to war and a dissolution of the state itself.
Since Franco's death, Spain has also struggled to remain intact. Leaders have attempted to prevent disintegration by granting many regions autonomy from the central government, allowing them to gain a degree of control over their own destinies while keeping them within national boundaries.
In a sense, this has worked to build a national identity, but it has also backfired. Because of this splintered political structure, Spanish economic policy is rarely applied across the country as a whole, and reform measures are almost impossible to pass comprehensively. As a result, the Spanish economy is struggling with one of the world's highest unemployment levels, while also maintaining one of its most rigid labour markets.
This is creating economic hardship that is providing fertile ground for those extremist parties that promise to upend the status quo. However, we must remember that the desire for change is not synonymous with a deep seated commitment to the separatist cause. The electorate's primary grievance is economic, not political.
What is worrisome however, is the precedent that is being set. Governing parties across Europe are increasingly vulnerable to upset, as voters react to economic circumstances by throwing them out of office. More political volatility is clearly on its way to the euro area, and market participants need to prepare for the consequences.
From Western Unions Monday World Market Update.
| More Pain in Spain? |
Catalonian voters delivered victory to separatist parties in a regional election last night, raising the likelihood that Spain's strongest regional economy will hold an independence referendum in the near future.
On the surface, it seems that this should trigger significant volatility in the euro. After all, Spain has long tended to bear a strong resemblance to the former Yugoslavia. Tito's iron fist kept the country unified (at great cost), but once it was removed, the ties that bound different groups together began to fray— eventually leading to war and a dissolution of the state itself.
Since Franco's death, Spain has also struggled to remain intact. Leaders have attempted to prevent disintegration by granting many regions autonomy from the central government, allowing them to gain a degree of control over their own destinies while keeping them within national boundaries.
In a sense, this has worked to build a national identity, but it has also backfired. Because of this splintered political structure, Spanish economic policy is rarely applied across the country as a whole, and reform measures are almost impossible to pass comprehensively. As a result, the Spanish economy is struggling with one of the world's highest unemployment levels, while also maintaining one of its most rigid labour markets.
This is creating economic hardship that is providing fertile ground for those extremist parties that promise to upend the status quo. However, we must remember that the desire for change is not synonymous with a deep seated commitment to the separatist cause. The electorate's primary grievance is economic, not political.
What is worrisome however, is the precedent that is being set. Governing parties across Europe are increasingly vulnerable to upset, as voters react to economic circumstances by throwing them out of office. More political volatility is clearly on its way to the euro area, and market participants need to prepare for the consequences.
Monday, 26 November 2012
Friday, 23 November 2012
Thursday, 22 November 2012
Wednesday, 21 November 2012
Tuesday, 20 November 2012
Tuesday 20November2012 - Just The Facts!
In the recent November Odlum Brown - Chris Tidd Investment Advisory Newsletter the following chart was included. This chart covers 2012 tax rates for taxable income. It shows the marginal tax rate treatment for regular income vs interest income vs dividend income vs capital gains.
This is just one of a number of factors to consider in constructing ones longer term investment portfolio strategy. Including a few quality company preferred dividend paying shares can play a very important part in increasing the income stream in ones investment portfolios.
Click to Enlarge.
In the recent November Odlum Brown - Chris Tidd Investment Advisory Newsletter the following chart was included. This chart covers 2012 tax rates for taxable income. It shows the marginal tax rate treatment for regular income vs interest income vs dividend income vs capital gains.
This is just one of a number of factors to consider in constructing ones longer term investment portfolio strategy. Including a few quality company preferred dividend paying shares can play a very important part in increasing the income stream in ones investment portfolios.
Click to Enlarge.
Tuesday 20November2012 - Opinion That Matters!
Clip from Grant Williams article at Mauldin Economics.
I have been surprised at how many Americans fail to grasp the real problems that lie at the core of the European debacle; namely that nations now expected to band together in times of trouble have been fighting each other for centuries.
"A popular revolt will happen" is how Kyle Bass sums up the endgame from kicking the can in Europe. Dismissing the headline-making 'But, Blackrock is buying European bonds', Bass reminds Bloomberg's Stephanie Ruhle that very few ever get the crises correct and that the herd will keep buying things until it blows apart. With massively over-leveraged banks and a Greek dependency, Bass notes that investing in Europe now is like picking up a dime in front of a bulldozer and expects Germany will eventually leave the Euro (within 3-4 years) as the 'joint-and-several' liabilities will never happen. 150 well-spent seconds to summarize just what is going in Europe, as he concludes with Milton Friedman's quote on Europe: "when they hit a bump in the road, it will tear them apart at the core."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-16/150-seconds-you-cant-handle-european-truth-kyle-bass
Clip from Grant Williams article at Mauldin Economics.
I have been surprised at how many Americans fail to grasp the real problems that lie at the core of the European debacle; namely that nations now expected to band together in times of trouble have been fighting each other for centuries.
Watch as Kyle Bass lays out beautifully the simple truth about the Eurozone...
"A popular revolt will happen" is how Kyle Bass sums up the endgame from kicking the can in Europe. Dismissing the headline-making 'But, Blackrock is buying European bonds', Bass reminds Bloomberg's Stephanie Ruhle that very few ever get the crises correct and that the herd will keep buying things until it blows apart. With massively over-leveraged banks and a Greek dependency, Bass notes that investing in Europe now is like picking up a dime in front of a bulldozer and expects Germany will eventually leave the Euro (within 3-4 years) as the 'joint-and-several' liabilities will never happen. 150 well-spent seconds to summarize just what is going in Europe, as he concludes with Milton Friedman's quote on Europe: "when they hit a bump in the road, it will tear them apart at the core."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-16/150-seconds-you-cant-handle-european-truth-kyle-bass
Wednesday, 14 November 2012
Wednesday 14Nov2012 - Stock Market Trading Analysis!
The following analysis is from Chris Rowe's Tuesday 14November newsletter.
'First I'll tell you why I'm bearish. Then I'll give you some context. Because it isn't a "black or white" situation. There are many different shades of gray.
I'm bearish because the NYSE BPI (as well as the Russell 2000 BPI and NASAQ BPI) have flipped to a new column of Os.
What does that mean? Well, first look at the chart below and notice how the columns change back and forth from O columns to X columns. The column on the far right is in Os. That's the new column that was added after Friday's stock market close.'
Click chart to enlarge. From JD Stochcharts.
'As I mentioned, there are times when some signals are more potent than others. I told you that not all column changes are created equal.
Overbought sell signals (column changes) are much more potent than regular sell signals.
Oversold buy signals (column changes) are much more potent than regular buy signals.
But all column changes should be respected.
Let's talk about the column change we've just witnessed...
Friday's column change is not that extra potent "overbought" sell signal that I just mentioned. But it's pretty close to being one. On a scale of 1 - 10 in terms of potency, I'd say it's a 7.
As you can see, the signal came after the market sold off pretty dramatically. The only way it can generate a signal is due to a strong market move. Most people have a hard time understanding that strong moves are often followed by even stronger moves in the same direction -- but the stronger move often comes after a "correction".'
In today's case, we got a strong downwards move. My stock account (Chris Rowe's) is HALF in cash and HALF in a bearish position. I believe the stock market will gain some strength and give me the chance to get into the second half of my bearish position. So, in terms of "notional value," my account will be 100% bearish soon.
I think the S&P 500 (chart above) is likely to move up to the green lines seen above. The horizontal green line is around 1,400 - 1,405 on the S&P 500. The down diagonal green line obviously changes price with every day that passes.
Now, if my indicator (the NYSE BPI) turns around and puts in a new column of Xs again, it won't matter to me whether I am at a profit or a loss, I will have to exit my bearish positions and work myself into a bullish positions -- if I hadn't already done so prior to the column change. Small losses don't matter much to me. It's the big moves that really count.'
The following analysis is from Chris Rowe's Tuesday 14November newsletter.
'First I'll tell you why I'm bearish. Then I'll give you some context. Because it isn't a "black or white" situation. There are many different shades of gray.
I'm bearish because the NYSE BPI (as well as the Russell 2000 BPI and NASAQ BPI) have flipped to a new column of Os.
What does that mean? Well, first look at the chart below and notice how the columns change back and forth from O columns to X columns. The column on the far right is in Os. That's the new column that was added after Friday's stock market close.'
Click chart to enlarge. From JD Stochcharts.
'As I mentioned, there are times when some signals are more potent than others. I told you that not all column changes are created equal.
Overbought sell signals (column changes) are much more potent than regular sell signals.
Oversold buy signals (column changes) are much more potent than regular buy signals.
But all column changes should be respected.
Let's talk about the column change we've just witnessed...
Friday's column change is not that extra potent "overbought" sell signal that I just mentioned. But it's pretty close to being one. On a scale of 1 - 10 in terms of potency, I'd say it's a 7.
As you can see, the signal came after the market sold off pretty dramatically. The only way it can generate a signal is due to a strong market move. Most people have a hard time understanding that strong moves are often followed by even stronger moves in the same direction -- but the stronger move often comes after a "correction".'
In today's case, we got a strong downwards move. My stock account (Chris Rowe's) is HALF in cash and HALF in a bearish position. I believe the stock market will gain some strength and give me the chance to get into the second half of my bearish position. So, in terms of "notional value," my account will be 100% bearish soon.
I think the S&P 500 (chart above) is likely to move up to the green lines seen above. The horizontal green line is around 1,400 - 1,405 on the S&P 500. The down diagonal green line obviously changes price with every day that passes.
Now, if my indicator (the NYSE BPI) turns around and puts in a new column of Xs again, it won't matter to me whether I am at a profit or a loss, I will have to exit my bearish positions and work myself into a bullish positions -- if I hadn't already done so prior to the column change. Small losses don't matter much to me. It's the big moves that really count.'
Tuesday, 13 November 2012
Tuesday 13Nov2012 - What Next?
Chris Tidd an Investment Advisor at Odlum Brown included this chart in his recent Investment Advisory Newsletter. It shows a high correlation between the SP500 Index and commercial futures currency traders position re the Euro. The chart indicates a strong probability of weak equity markets for at least the next 9+ months. Thus, one should be cautious going forward with Preservation of Capital as a high priority.
Click to enlarge.
Chris Tidd an Investment Advisor at Odlum Brown included this chart in his recent Investment Advisory Newsletter. It shows a high correlation between the SP500 Index and commercial futures currency traders position re the Euro. The chart indicates a strong probability of weak equity markets for at least the next 9+ months. Thus, one should be cautious going forward with Preservation of Capital as a high priority.
Click to enlarge.
Tuesday 13November2012 - Chart of he Day!
This past Friday 09November the NYSE Bullish Percent Index rolled over to the downside with a column of O's. This is the start of a trend indicating fewer and fewer of the 1200+ NYSE traded stocks are bullish. This is an internal strength indicator.
This is just one of a number of technical indicators used to determine which way stock markets are headed. This indicator helps one be 'On the Right Side of the Market' for shorter term trading.
This past Friday 09November the NYSE Bullish Percent Index rolled over to the downside with a column of O's. This is the start of a trend indicating fewer and fewer of the 1200+ NYSE traded stocks are bullish. This is an internal strength indicator.
This is just one of a number of technical indicators used to determine which way stock markets are headed. This indicator helps one be 'On the Right Side of the Market' for shorter term trading.
Thursday, 8 November 2012
Thursday 08Nov2012 - What Next? Pay Attention to the Presidential Cycle.
Charlie Rose talks with Jeremy Grantham of Investment Management firm GMO.
“As an investor, what do you do?
“I’ve hero-worshipped the presidential cycle. Going back to 1932, if you take the first and second year together, they’ve had no real return in the market. All of the return has been compressed into a gigantic Year Three and a respectable Year Four. For us, the cycle years start on October 1st. So now we’re in the dreaded first year. And we have Republicans threatening to add fiscal constraints into a very fragile economy. We have the European situation. We have China stumbling in an incredible slow-motion style. I think it’s a really good year to keep your head down….
I am going to be careful, particularly for the first half of next year. Great brands of blue chips are not so bad in the U.S. Emerging countries are about fair price. Beaten-down European stocks, particularly the so-called value stocks, are probably a little cheap, although risky. And resource stocks, once they reflect the weak economy—and we’ll get another whack-down—will be a wonderful long-term purchase. Farmland and forests, which should be the backbone of any long-term, serious portfolio. … It will also be a good time to buy in. “
JD - Personally, I am very cautious going forward and waiting for better opportunities to reinvest cash sitting on the sidelines.
A couple of options for cash held on the sidelines with current low interest rates.
Money market funds are an option.
But Investment Savings Accounts provide a better yield at about 1.25%
Some examples are:
RBC Investment Savings Account. Fund Code RBF2010
TD Investment Savings Account. Fund Code TDB8150
Altamira High-Interest CasPerformer. Fund Code NBC100
Charlie Rose talks with Jeremy Grantham of Investment Management firm GMO.
“As an investor, what do you do?
“I’ve hero-worshipped the presidential cycle. Going back to 1932, if you take the first and second year together, they’ve had no real return in the market. All of the return has been compressed into a gigantic Year Three and a respectable Year Four. For us, the cycle years start on October 1st. So now we’re in the dreaded first year. And we have Republicans threatening to add fiscal constraints into a very fragile economy. We have the European situation. We have China stumbling in an incredible slow-motion style. I think it’s a really good year to keep your head down….
I am going to be careful, particularly for the first half of next year. Great brands of blue chips are not so bad in the U.S. Emerging countries are about fair price. Beaten-down European stocks, particularly the so-called value stocks, are probably a little cheap, although risky. And resource stocks, once they reflect the weak economy—and we’ll get another whack-down—will be a wonderful long-term purchase. Farmland and forests, which should be the backbone of any long-term, serious portfolio. … It will also be a good time to buy in. “
JD - Personally, I am very cautious going forward and waiting for better opportunities to reinvest cash sitting on the sidelines.
A couple of options for cash held on the sidelines with current low interest rates.
Money market funds are an option.
But Investment Savings Accounts provide a better yield at about 1.25%
Some examples are:
RBC Investment Savings Account. Fund Code RBF2010
TD Investment Savings Account. Fund Code TDB8150
Altamira High-Interest CasPerformer. Fund Code NBC100
Sunday, 4 November 2012
Saturday, 3 November 2012
Saturday 03Nov2012 - My 5 Cents Worth!
The Euro is now very close to breaking support levels for its bear market rally from late July lows.
If it breaks down, I plan to add to EUO-NYSE positions. EUO is a 2X inverse ETF that increases in price when the Euro declines vs the US dollar.
The following chart and comment is from EWI Friday Short Term Update.
The Euro is now very close to breaking support levels for its bear market rally from late July lows.
If it breaks down, I plan to add to EUO-NYSE positions. EUO is a 2X inverse ETF that increases in price when the Euro declines vs the US dollar.
The following chart and comment is from EWI Friday Short Term Update.
Saturday, 27 October 2012
Friday, 26 October 2012
Friday 26October2012 - Stock Market Action!
From Danielle Park Web Site:
Not 6 weeks after the US Fed pledged Q’Efiniity injections, the S&P 500 has not only given back all of its initial gains made on that announcement, but has also broken below the top it forged on QE2 stimulus last spring. The Canadian TSX too is following global growth down and is now a full 16% lower than its nearest cycle peak 18 months ago in April 2011.
Click to enlarge.
From Danielle Park Web Site:
Not 6 weeks after the US Fed pledged Q’Efiniity injections, the S&P 500 has not only given back all of its initial gains made on that announcement, but has also broken below the top it forged on QE2 stimulus last spring. The Canadian TSX too is following global growth down and is now a full 16% lower than its nearest cycle peak 18 months ago in April 2011.
Click to enlarge.
Friday, 21 September 2012
Friday 21Sep2012 - Gone Fishing!
Thanks for browsing my Blog.
Gone Fishing on a Cruise Ship.
So NO Posts for the next few weeks.
Internet access on a cruise ship is at TURTLE SPEED and Account Charges are at WARP SPEED.
Will Return in Mid-October.
Unless a Hurriciane Sinks the Ship First.
OK!
I'm Ready for the 24 Oz Porterhouse Steak at Cagney's Steak House.
But First a Double Shrimp Salad.
Next, A Refreshing Ceaser Salad.
OK. Now the Main Course served Medium-Rare.
I Know. You think I Forgot. Preordered the Calfornia Cab before arriving at Cagney's.
Dessert? Maybe? But NO, Just a Freshly Brewed Ameican Coffee.
NEXT!!!
6AM Tomorrow Morning 6KM Power Walk.
Hey! You didn't think You would Get Off That Easy.
That's All Folks!
Thanks for browsing my Blog.
Gone Fishing on a Cruise Ship.
So NO Posts for the next few weeks.
Internet access on a cruise ship is at TURTLE SPEED and Account Charges are at WARP SPEED.
Will Return in Mid-October.
Unless a Hurriciane Sinks the Ship First.
OK!
I'm Ready for the 24 Oz Porterhouse Steak at Cagney's Steak House.
But First a Double Shrimp Salad.
Next, A Refreshing Ceaser Salad.
OK. Now the Main Course served Medium-Rare.
I Know. You think I Forgot. Preordered the Calfornia Cab before arriving at Cagney's.
Dessert? Maybe? But NO, Just a Freshly Brewed Ameican Coffee.
NEXT!!!
6AM Tomorrow Morning 6KM Power Walk.
Hey! You didn't think You would Get Off That Easy.
That's All Folks!
Wednesday, 19 September 2012
Tuesday, 18 September 2012
Sunday, 16 September 2012
Sunday 16Sep2012 - Opinion that Matters!
From Blackswan Capital.
The reason QE1 and QE2 have not worked as we are told it was supposed to work, is because the credit transmission mechanism in the US economy and in Europe, and increasingly in China, is broken. Instead of credit transmission, the three biggest regions of the world, call them the G-3, are in financial repression mode doing all they can to save the existing order first, only to worry about new growth later.
QE3 will fail, as QE1 and QE2 have. The conditional bond buying in Europe will fail, as the LTRO has before it. And another round of bank lending in China will also fail to rekindle new growth. But in the near-term, if you are long financial assets, you don’t really care do you? Well you better care. Because the disconnect between what is going on in the global economy, in terms of real growth versus financial bubbles being created by financial leakage an dismally failed Keynesian demand management may be setting up for something epic in proportion.
From Blackswan Capital.
The reason QE1 and QE2 have not worked as we are told it was supposed to work, is because the credit transmission mechanism in the US economy and in Europe, and increasingly in China, is broken. Instead of credit transmission, the three biggest regions of the world, call them the G-3, are in financial repression mode doing all they can to save the existing order first, only to worry about new growth later.
QE3 will fail, as QE1 and QE2 have. The conditional bond buying in Europe will fail, as the LTRO has before it. And another round of bank lending in China will also fail to rekindle new growth. But in the near-term, if you are long financial assets, you don’t really care do you? Well you better care. Because the disconnect between what is going on in the global economy, in terms of real growth versus financial bubbles being created by financial leakage an dismally failed Keynesian demand management may be setting up for something epic in proportion.
Tuesday, 11 September 2012
Thursday, 6 September 2012
Thursday 06Sept2012 - Opinion That Matters!
From Jack Crooks at Blackswan Capital:
Action
We continue to be long-term euro bears. Recession and tension will most likely continue despite the so-called pledge of "unlimited sterilized bond buying." Continue to hold long the UltraShort euro ETF (EUO). If already holding this position, you may consider adding on any bump higher in the euro. If you do not already hold this position, we think it makes sense to add it now.
And from Bill Gross's September newsletter at PIMCO:
From Jack Crooks at Blackswan Capital:
We continue to be long-term euro bears. Recession and tension will most likely continue despite the so-called pledge of "unlimited sterilized bond buying." Continue to hold long the UltraShort euro ETF (EUO). If already holding this position, you may consider adding on any bump higher in the euro. If you do not already hold this position, we think it makes sense to add it now.
And from Bill Gross's September newsletter at PIMCO:
If I were an individual investor, I would do this: Balance your asset mix according to your age. Own more stocks if you are young, but more bonds if you are in your 60s, like myself. If you choose an investment advisor, a mutual fund, or an ETF, make sure that your fees are minimized. After all, if overall returns average 3–4% annually how can you possibly afford to give 100 basis points of it back? You cannot. And be careful. The age of credit expansion which led to double-digit portfolio returns is over. The age of inflation is upon us, which typically provides a headwind, not a tailwind, to securities price – both stocks and bonds.
Thursday - 06Sept2012 - Past Tennis Stars!
View at http://www.businessinsider.com/tennis-legends-2012-8
A couple of my favorite players.
And of course, the one and only:
A couple of my favorite players.
And of course, the one and only:
Monday, 3 September 2012
Friday, 31 August 2012
Thursday, 30 August 2012
Thursday 30Aug2012 - My 5 Cents Worth!
It's tough finding a reputable stockbroker or investment advisor that really has your investment goals ahead of his/her goals of making money for themselves.
Watch the following clip of an ex-stockbroker.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/ex-stock-broker-realized-most-did-bad-clients-134422604.html
It's tough finding a reputable stockbroker or investment advisor that really has your investment goals ahead of his/her goals of making money for themselves.
Watch the following clip of an ex-stockbroker.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/ex-stock-broker-realized-most-did-bad-clients-134422604.html
Wednesday, 29 August 2012
Wednesday 29Aug2012 - America on the Brink!
A one-half hour presentation from Weiss Research discussing The Great Fiscal Cliff of 2012-13.
This link will go offline 02September.
http://finance.weissinc.com/reports/event/gfc/gfc131-event.php?ccode=0829125250144FISCALFPS&sc=FPNA&ec=5250144
Hopefully the US Congress can get its act together before 01Jan2013.
A one-half hour presentation from Weiss Research discussing The Great Fiscal Cliff of 2012-13.
This link will go offline 02September.
http://finance.weissinc.com/reports/event/gfc/gfc131-event.php?ccode=0829125250144FISCALFPS&sc=FPNA&ec=5250144
Hopefully the US Congress can get its act together before 01Jan2013.
Sunday, 26 August 2012
Sunday - 26Aug2012 - The Looming US of A Fiscal Cliff Crisis!
On January 1, 2013 — just 127 days from today — more than $1.6 trillion will be sucked out of the U.S. economy. Some of the largest tax hikes in history PLUS the largest spending cuts Washington has ever seen will take effect on New Years’ Day.
The US of A will stand at the brink of a fiscal cliff so huge that it threatens to crush our economy ... leave the stock market a smoking ruin ... cause our already-high unemployment rate to explode higher ... and drive millions of Americans into poverty.
This is not merely my prediction.
The International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Department of Defense, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs ...
Plus armies of U.S. senators and congresspeople in both major parties ... and many leading economists all UNANIMOUSLY agree that this crisis could destroy what’s left of the economic “recovery” and even plunge America into a Great Depression.
So far, the hopelessly deadlocked US of A Congress has failed to develop a plan to avert this crisis. They haven’t even started.
But even if they are able to delay some of the spending cuts and tax hikes, there’s a third shoe to fall they cannot avert:
Nearly $1 TRILLION per year in fiscal and monetary stimulus — money that has kept the economy from collapsing since 2009 — will END.
Well! What do You Think!
On January 1, 2013 — just 127 days from today — more than $1.6 trillion will be sucked out of the U.S. economy. Some of the largest tax hikes in history PLUS the largest spending cuts Washington has ever seen will take effect on New Years’ Day.
The US of A will stand at the brink of a fiscal cliff so huge that it threatens to crush our economy ... leave the stock market a smoking ruin ... cause our already-high unemployment rate to explode higher ... and drive millions of Americans into poverty.
This is not merely my prediction.
The International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Department of Defense, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs ...
Plus armies of U.S. senators and congresspeople in both major parties ... and many leading economists all UNANIMOUSLY agree that this crisis could destroy what’s left of the economic “recovery” and even plunge America into a Great Depression.
So far, the hopelessly deadlocked US of A Congress has failed to develop a plan to avert this crisis. They haven’t even started.
But even if they are able to delay some of the spending cuts and tax hikes, there’s a third shoe to fall they cannot avert:
Nearly $1 TRILLION per year in fiscal and monetary stimulus — money that has kept the economy from collapsing since 2009 — will END.
Well! What do You Think!
Friday, 24 August 2012
Wednesday, 22 August 2012
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