Saturday, 30 June 2012
Thursday, 28 June 2012
Thursday 28Jun2012 - Can a Debt Crisis be Cured With More Debt?
Link to Pimco's Bill Gross July Investment Outlook.
http://media.pimco.com/Documents/PIMCO%20IO%20July%20GBL_FINAL.pdf
Link to Pimco's Bill Gross July Investment Outlook.
http://media.pimco.com/Documents/PIMCO%20IO%20July%20GBL_FINAL.pdf
Wednesday, 27 June 2012
27Jun2012 - Opinions That Matter
Europe Soverign Risk Becoming Banking Risk.
Discussion re the European debt crisis.
The European banks are all bankrupt too, partly because they've lent so much capital to bankrupt governments. So you've got two sets of bankrupt institutions trading debt back and forth between themselves. It doesn't help to say that it's the PIIGS that are in the worst shape, because it's the banks in the supposedly wealthier countries that own the PIIGS's debt. They are all tied together.
Personally, I am very cautious at this time for investments. Cash is a position. I just feel that the European ECU leaders are hogtied to the rails of a speeding oncoming train with no options or solutions at hand.
Hopefully the web link below this clip works.
This is the first time I will try to imbed a link to the above interview. Hopefully it works.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/roubini-we-are-heading-for-a-global-perfect-storm-fPAXkJVOTpaqlgZm38eMHg.html
Europe Soverign Risk Becoming Banking Risk.
Discussion re the European debt crisis.
The European banks are all bankrupt too, partly because they've lent so much capital to bankrupt governments. So you've got two sets of bankrupt institutions trading debt back and forth between themselves. It doesn't help to say that it's the PIIGS that are in the worst shape, because it's the banks in the supposedly wealthier countries that own the PIIGS's debt. They are all tied together.
Personally, I am very cautious at this time for investments. Cash is a position. I just feel that the European ECU leaders are hogtied to the rails of a speeding oncoming train with no options or solutions at hand.
Hopefully the web link below this clip works.
This is the first time I will try to imbed a link to the above interview. Hopefully it works.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/roubini-we-are-heading-for-a-global-perfect-storm-fPAXkJVOTpaqlgZm38eMHg.html
Monday, 25 June 2012
Saturday, 23 June 2012
This Can't be True?
From CBC news.
A confidential government report obtained by CBC News reveals federal workers have been booking off sick in record numbers, costing Canadian taxpayers more than $1 billion a year in lost wages alone.
The internal Treasury Board report indicates federal public servants are staying home an average of 18 working days a year, or almost a full month off the job.
That is about 2½ times the average rate of absenteeism in Canadian private industry, and almost twice the level of sick leave and disability claims in the rest of the public sector.
This apparent epidemic of bureaucratic no-shows means that on an average weekday, more federal public servants are off sick than there are employees at Ford Canada and General Motors combined.
Gregory Thomas, head of the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, calls the situation "outrageous."
"We know the population isn't sick 18 days a year; it doesn't make sense.
"The government's got to start treating this money like it's their own money, and they've got to insist that if people are healthy, they come to work. And if people are sick, you've got to make sure they are sick."
From CBC news.
A confidential government report obtained by CBC News reveals federal workers have been booking off sick in record numbers, costing Canadian taxpayers more than $1 billion a year in lost wages alone.
The internal Treasury Board report indicates federal public servants are staying home an average of 18 working days a year, or almost a full month off the job.
That is about 2½ times the average rate of absenteeism in Canadian private industry, and almost twice the level of sick leave and disability claims in the rest of the public sector.
This apparent epidemic of bureaucratic no-shows means that on an average weekday, more federal public servants are off sick than there are employees at Ford Canada and General Motors combined.
Gregory Thomas, head of the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, calls the situation "outrageous."
"We know the population isn't sick 18 days a year; it doesn't make sense.
"The government's got to start treating this money like it's their own money, and they've got to insist that if people are healthy, they come to work. And if people are sick, you've got to make sure they are sick."
Friday, 22 June 2012
Friday 22Jun2012 Chart of the Day
The following chart from todays EWI Financial Forecast Short Term Update.
Minor wave 3 has just started and should approach the October 2011 low.
Elliott Wave International's analysts believe we are in a multiyear secular bear market. They believe the current unfolding bear market will be even worse that the 17 month October 2007 to March 2009 decline. This chart shows the wave sequence for that decline. Notice on the left under the lower case b, the 1 and 2. If you believe/follow Elliott Wave theory, then on the right side we have just completed the same minor waves 1 and 2 and have now started minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (1) of primary wave 3 (circle). Primary wave 1 (circle) was completed in March 2009. The market rally from March 2009 to Early 2012 was nothing more than an extended A, B, C correction within the ongoing multiyear secular bear market that completed primary wave 2 (circle). Also notice how wave 3 is the longest of the 5 wave sequences. Now guess what is coming up later this year or 2013. A minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 (circle). If EWI's forecast plays out then we are in for some very brutal financial investment management times in the coming months.
The following chart from todays EWI Financial Forecast Short Term Update.
Minor wave 3 has just started and should approach the October 2011 low.
Elliott Wave International's analysts believe we are in a multiyear secular bear market. They believe the current unfolding bear market will be even worse that the 17 month October 2007 to March 2009 decline. This chart shows the wave sequence for that decline. Notice on the left under the lower case b, the 1 and 2. If you believe/follow Elliott Wave theory, then on the right side we have just completed the same minor waves 1 and 2 and have now started minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (1) of primary wave 3 (circle). Primary wave 1 (circle) was completed in March 2009. The market rally from March 2009 to Early 2012 was nothing more than an extended A, B, C correction within the ongoing multiyear secular bear market that completed primary wave 2 (circle). Also notice how wave 3 is the longest of the 5 wave sequences. Now guess what is coming up later this year or 2013. A minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 (circle). If EWI's forecast plays out then we are in for some very brutal financial investment management times in the coming months.
Opinion That Matters
The following clip from the June Sprott Asset Mgmt monthly newsletter.
If you want to know what's really going on, listen to the executives of companies that actually produce and sell things. On May 24, Tiffany & Co cut its fiscal-year sales and profit forecasts blaming "slowing growth in key markets like China and weakness in the United States as shoppers think twice about spending on high-end jewelry."18 On June 8th, McDonald's surprised the market with lower than expected same-store sales growth in May, following a lacklustre April sales report that the company stated was "largely due to underperformance in the United States, where consumers continue to seek out very low-priced food."19, 20 On June 13th, Nucor Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker by market value warned that its second-quarter profit will miss its previous guidance after a "surge" in imports undermined prices and "political and economic uncertainty affect buyers' confidence".21 On June 20th, Proctor and Gamble lowered its fourth quarter guidance and profit forecast for 2012. Factors that drove the company's challenges included "slow-to-no GDP growth in developed markets", high unemployment levels, significant commodity cost increases and "highly volatile foreign exchange rates".22 Other companies that have recently lowered guidance include Danone, Nestle, Unilever, Cisco Systems, Dell, Lowe's, and Fedex. It's ugly out there, and many companies are politely warning the market about the type of environment they foresee ahead in both the US and abroad.
To give you a hint of how bad it is in Europe today, the most recent retail sales out of Netherlands showed a decline of 8.7% year-over-year in April.23 In Spain, retail sales fell 9.8% year-on-year in April, which was 6% greater than the revised drop of 3.8% in March.24 Declines of this magnitude are not normal occurrences and signal a significant shift in spending within those countries. We fear this is a sign of things to come within the broader Eurozone, which will only serve to complicate an already dire situation that much more.
The following clip from the June Sprott Asset Mgmt monthly newsletter.
If you want to know what's really going on, listen to the executives of companies that actually produce and sell things. On May 24, Tiffany & Co cut its fiscal-year sales and profit forecasts blaming "slowing growth in key markets like China and weakness in the United States as shoppers think twice about spending on high-end jewelry."18 On June 8th, McDonald's surprised the market with lower than expected same-store sales growth in May, following a lacklustre April sales report that the company stated was "largely due to underperformance in the United States, where consumers continue to seek out very low-priced food."19, 20 On June 13th, Nucor Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker by market value warned that its second-quarter profit will miss its previous guidance after a "surge" in imports undermined prices and "political and economic uncertainty affect buyers' confidence".21 On June 20th, Proctor and Gamble lowered its fourth quarter guidance and profit forecast for 2012. Factors that drove the company's challenges included "slow-to-no GDP growth in developed markets", high unemployment levels, significant commodity cost increases and "highly volatile foreign exchange rates".22 Other companies that have recently lowered guidance include Danone, Nestle, Unilever, Cisco Systems, Dell, Lowe's, and Fedex. It's ugly out there, and many companies are politely warning the market about the type of environment they foresee ahead in both the US and abroad.
To give you a hint of how bad it is in Europe today, the most recent retail sales out of Netherlands showed a decline of 8.7% year-over-year in April.23 In Spain, retail sales fell 9.8% year-on-year in April, which was 6% greater than the revised drop of 3.8% in March.24 Declines of this magnitude are not normal occurrences and signal a significant shift in spending within those countries. We fear this is a sign of things to come within the broader Eurozone, which will only serve to complicate an already dire situation that much more.
Thursday, 21 June 2012
Changing Perceptions!
How fast one's perception of Canadian banks can change. In 2008/09 the Canadian banks were saved by not having Canadian federal banking regulations changed fast enough to allow Canadian banks to copy the US banks packaging and flogging of worthless mortgage paper crap on unsuppecting customers worldwide. This is a complicated topic. All I'm saying, is be very careful about holding/investing in Canadian banks this time around in the huge equity bear market I see coming. I never thought Royal Bank would be the first to be downgraded.
Citigroup and Bank of America, which have struggled to fully recover from the financial crisis, were among the hardest hit. After two-notch downgrades, their credit ratings stand just two levels above junk, a sign of the difficult business conditions they face. Banking executives argued on Thursday that the new ratings did not reflect the safeguards and changes that they had put in place in recent years.
The European Banks are a basket case. If they marked to market all the soverign debt of surrounding countries they hold (Greece, Portugal, Spain, and now Italy); they are under water also know as bankruptcy (assets - liabilities = less than zero).
By contagion this will spread to North American banks in the coming equity bear market. What we are watching is when overnight interbank lending freezes up.
How fast one's perception of Canadian banks can change. In 2008/09 the Canadian banks were saved by not having Canadian federal banking regulations changed fast enough to allow Canadian banks to copy the US banks packaging and flogging of worthless mortgage paper crap on unsuppecting customers worldwide. This is a complicated topic. All I'm saying, is be very careful about holding/investing in Canadian banks this time around in the huge equity bear market I see coming. I never thought Royal Bank would be the first to be downgraded.
Citigroup and Bank of America, which have struggled to fully recover from the financial crisis, were among the hardest hit. After two-notch downgrades, their credit ratings stand just two levels above junk, a sign of the difficult business conditions they face. Banking executives argued on Thursday that the new ratings did not reflect the safeguards and changes that they had put in place in recent years.
The European Banks are a basket case. If they marked to market all the soverign debt of surrounding countries they hold (Greece, Portugal, Spain, and now Italy); they are under water also know as bankruptcy (assets - liabilities = less than zero).
By contagion this will spread to North American banks in the coming equity bear market. What we are watching is when overnight interbank lending freezes up.
Thursday - Market Action
Todays stock market action most likely indicates that for those who follow Elliott Wave theory, wave 3 of 5 has now started its leg down in the current bear market. Wave 3 is usually the longest wave and will be longer than wave 1 and 5 when this minor 5 wave sequence is completed. The current 5 wave sequence is minor and when complete will be a wave (1) of higher degree. Then there is a 3 wave a-b-c bear market rally wave (2) and then the real bear market killer wave (3) starts its downward leg. If this bear market plays out following Elliott Wave theory then there should be a final bear market bottom sometime in the next 6-12 months. Today was a good day to have hedges SDS (2X short the SP500) and EUO (2X short the Euro) in place.
The following chart is from today's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast special update.
Click to enlarge.
Todays stock market action most likely indicates that for those who follow Elliott Wave theory, wave 3 of 5 has now started its leg down in the current bear market. Wave 3 is usually the longest wave and will be longer than wave 1 and 5 when this minor 5 wave sequence is completed. The current 5 wave sequence is minor and when complete will be a wave (1) of higher degree. Then there is a 3 wave a-b-c bear market rally wave (2) and then the real bear market killer wave (3) starts its downward leg. If this bear market plays out following Elliott Wave theory then there should be a final bear market bottom sometime in the next 6-12 months. Today was a good day to have hedges SDS (2X short the SP500) and EUO (2X short the Euro) in place.
The following chart is from today's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast special update.
Click to enlarge.
Wednesday, 20 June 2012
Today's five cents worth!
Comments from Simon Black column on Zero Hedge.
What’s funny is that the 20-year average of Italian 10-year bond yields since 1993 is 5.9%. They’re currently priced at 6.06%. Italian bond yields aren’t spiking, they’re just reverting to the mean. The real spike hasn’t happened yet.
Italy is in such dismal shape that having to borrow funds at ‘average’ rates is going to push it into insolvency… the government can only limp along if it can borrow at absurdly low rates that don’t even keep pace with inflation.
Perhaps more than anything, this shows how truly broken the system has become… and what a colossal failure the experiment has been.
Of course, before things completely break down, they’ll resort to the same old tactics that bankrupt governments have relied on in the past–outright confiscation of wealth, capital controls, and financial repression.
It’s already happening across the continent, in fact.
In Greece, the government is helping itself to people’s savings at will, in their sole discretion… and forcing businesses to ‘prove’ the tax purity of their funds.
In Italy, the government has colluded with several banks (like BNI) to freeze customers out of their accounts with no warning or explanation.
ATM limits are being imposed at many banks across the continent, and Euro leaders are openly discussing more severe controls to stem potential capital flight.
The conclusion to draw from all of this is clear: finance the government, save the banks, screw the people. This reality, coming soon to a western civilization near you.
This article was written by Simon Black and originally published at Zero Hedge
Comments from Simon Black column on Zero Hedge.
What’s funny is that the 20-year average of Italian 10-year bond yields since 1993 is 5.9%. They’re currently priced at 6.06%. Italian bond yields aren’t spiking, they’re just reverting to the mean. The real spike hasn’t happened yet.
Italy is in such dismal shape that having to borrow funds at ‘average’ rates is going to push it into insolvency… the government can only limp along if it can borrow at absurdly low rates that don’t even keep pace with inflation.
Perhaps more than anything, this shows how truly broken the system has become… and what a colossal failure the experiment has been.
Of course, before things completely break down, they’ll resort to the same old tactics that bankrupt governments have relied on in the past–outright confiscation of wealth, capital controls, and financial repression.
It’s already happening across the continent, in fact.
In Greece, the government is helping itself to people’s savings at will, in their sole discretion… and forcing businesses to ‘prove’ the tax purity of their funds.
In Italy, the government has colluded with several banks (like BNI) to freeze customers out of their accounts with no warning or explanation.
ATM limits are being imposed at many banks across the continent, and Euro leaders are openly discussing more severe controls to stem potential capital flight.
The conclusion to draw from all of this is clear: finance the government, save the banks, screw the people. This reality, coming soon to a western civilization near you.
This article was written by Simon Black and originally published at Zero Hedge
Tuesday - What's Next?
Markets are becomong extremly volatile of late. Today (Tuesday) there were a number of very cautious sell signals. Mark Lebovit is now in cash (remember he is a short term trader), and as well Jack Crooks of Blackswan Global Investors is watching for an entry point to go short the SP500 index. His recomendation is to use SDS-NYSE to go 2X short the SP500. And of course EWI belivies we are on the edge of a huge down swing. For now have no charts to complement this trading position.
Markets are becomong extremly volatile of late. Today (Tuesday) there were a number of very cautious sell signals. Mark Lebovit is now in cash (remember he is a short term trader), and as well Jack Crooks of Blackswan Global Investors is watching for an entry point to go short the SP500 index. His recomendation is to use SDS-NYSE to go 2X short the SP500. And of course EWI belivies we are on the edge of a huge down swing. For now have no charts to complement this trading position.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012
Dagwood's Take!
OK. Right off the bat in this 3rd blog post here is my number one mentor over the past 50+ years. Every morning I receive his advice now via email in the comic strip Blondie. Yes, I'm talking about Dagwood Bumstead. The Blondie comic strip started in 1930 by Chic Young. After his death the production was taken over by his son Dean Young and John Marshall. It continues today as one of most widely read comic strips of all time.
Dagwood is my daily mentor giving me his take on dealing with everyday situations; whether it be investment advice, dealing with ones wife, late night pizza hunger cravings, afternoon nap times, the mailman, you name it, Dagwood is there to help me.
For example: Left mouse click to enlarge.
OK. Right off the bat in this 3rd blog post here is my number one mentor over the past 50+ years. Every morning I receive his advice now via email in the comic strip Blondie. Yes, I'm talking about Dagwood Bumstead. The Blondie comic strip started in 1930 by Chic Young. After his death the production was taken over by his son Dean Young and John Marshall. It continues today as one of most widely read comic strips of all time.
Dagwood is my daily mentor giving me his take on dealing with everyday situations; whether it be investment advice, dealing with ones wife, late night pizza hunger cravings, afternoon nap times, the mailman, you name it, Dagwood is there to help me.
For example: Left mouse click to enlarge.
Things that Really Matter
One of the most rewarding and beautiful friends one can have is a loving 4 leg companion. I had the luxury of caring part time for Bobo, a smart and beautiful Welsh Corgi for a number of years. Bobo is now in Heaven chasing cats and barking at crows, but I have an enlarged and framed photo of Bobo above my computer; and not a day goes by that I do not think of Bobo and his totally unconditional love and friendship. It is now over a year since Bobo passed on, and neighborhood people still stop and ask about Bobo. Hope this photo insert works. Click left mouse button to enlarge.
One of the most rewarding and beautiful friends one can have is a loving 4 leg companion. I had the luxury of caring part time for Bobo, a smart and beautiful Welsh Corgi for a number of years. Bobo is now in Heaven chasing cats and barking at crows, but I have an enlarged and framed photo of Bobo above my computer; and not a day goes by that I do not think of Bobo and his totally unconditional love and friendship. It is now over a year since Bobo passed on, and neighborhood people still stop and ask about Bobo. Hope this photo insert works. Click left mouse button to enlarge.
Welcome to my just created Google based blog.
I have called it Juggling Information.
It is a takeaway from Danielle Park's Juggling Dynamite blog. I visit Danielle's blog every day to view her latest comments and charts. It is just one of a mulitude of sources of business/investment information, including paid for newsletter subscriptions, the Globe & Mail, and business TV programs, that I read/watch every day that have huge differences of opinion. Ocassionally I forward some of this material via EMail.
Now you may be surprised to see posts re Maria Sharipova, Gregor Robertson, NHL Hockey and many other topics outside the investment management world.
This is my first time using a personal blog as the author so my posts may get a little confusing and mixed up as I learn how to plan and post comments, and add photo inserts and links to other web based information.
So, Welcome to my Juggling Information blog started Tuesday 19June2012.
I have called it Juggling Information.
It is a takeaway from Danielle Park's Juggling Dynamite blog. I visit Danielle's blog every day to view her latest comments and charts. It is just one of a mulitude of sources of business/investment information, including paid for newsletter subscriptions, the Globe & Mail, and business TV programs, that I read/watch every day that have huge differences of opinion. Ocassionally I forward some of this material via EMail.
Now you may be surprised to see posts re Maria Sharipova, Gregor Robertson, NHL Hockey and many other topics outside the investment management world.
This is my first time using a personal blog as the author so my posts may get a little confusing and mixed up as I learn how to plan and post comments, and add photo inserts and links to other web based information.
So, Welcome to my Juggling Information blog started Tuesday 19June2012.
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