From Juggling Dynamite website.
Click to enlarge.
Tuesday, 26 March 2013
Monday, 25 March 2013
Monday 25March2013 - The New Rules for The Euro Zone Game!
From the New York Times re Cyprus
The Euro was weaker vs the US dollar today. As indciated in the EWI Euro chart below the short term downside target is 1.268 from todays 1.2854 close. This would most likely mark the end of wave 1 of a 5 wave downward move vs the US dollar.
For those who mid February entered a short term trade with EUO the sell target would be $20.43US but for execution a $20.38 Sell order would be reasonable. On the other hand one can continue to hold through a wave 2 a-b-c counter trend.
From the New York Times re Cyprus
While depositors with less than €100,000 in their
accounts will be untouched, people with more money will take losses, in a first
for euro zone bailouts. So will senior bondholders in some of the banks, who
have hitherto been untouchable in such bailouts.
And breaking additional new ground, a euro zone
country is taking steps to prevent people from taking their money out of
financial institutions on a large scale. The measures, known as capital
controls, have typically been used only in emerging countries, like Argentina.
Now Cyprus, a longtime money haven, is struggling to figure out how to prevent
it from fleeing.
“This is just the beginning,” said Nicolas Véron, a
senior fellow at Bruegel, a policy research group in Brussels, and a visiting
fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
“For the first time, we have capital controls in the
euro zone. We’ve just spent the last three years saying we can’t have that,” he
said.
“The next time there is a crisis somewhere else in the world, people will
think of what happened in Cyprus and will try to get their money out much
faster.
“These are the new rules of the game.”
For those who mid February entered a short term trade with EUO the sell target would be $20.43US but for execution a $20.38 Sell order would be reasonable. On the other hand one can continue to hold through a wave 2 a-b-c counter trend.
Friday, 15 March 2013
Friday 15March2013 - Chart of the Day 2!
From Danielle Park's Juggling Dynamite web site.
The following chart gives some correction targets for the TSX index if we should enter a bear market for stocks. A 22% decline to the Head and Shoulders Neckline and a 37% decline to the long term support trendline.
Jack Crooks today issued a Buy today to go 2X short the Dow Jones Industrials with the DXD ProShares Ultrashort Dow 30 ETF.
Click to enlarge.
From Danielle Park's Juggling Dynamite web site.
The following chart gives some correction targets for the TSX index if we should enter a bear market for stocks. A 22% decline to the Head and Shoulders Neckline and a 37% decline to the long term support trendline.
Jack Crooks today issued a Buy today to go 2X short the Dow Jones Industrials with the DXD ProShares Ultrashort Dow 30 ETF.
Click to enlarge.
Friday 15March20213 - Chart of the Day!
From Danielle Park's Juggling Dynamite web site.
Source: Cory Venable, CMT, Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc.
"Without the over-valued financial sector, the TSX would be somewhere closer to 9500 rather than present 12700. From here, priced-for-perfection financials look increasingly vulnerable to slowing global demand, weak consumer credit appetite and softening realty prices in Canada."
Click image to enlarge.
From Danielle Park's Juggling Dynamite web site.
Source: Cory Venable, CMT, Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc.
"Without the over-valued financial sector, the TSX would be somewhere closer to 9500 rather than present 12700. From here, priced-for-perfection financials look increasingly vulnerable to slowing global demand, weak consumer credit appetite and softening realty prices in Canada."
Click image to enlarge.
Thursday, 14 March 2013
Thursday 14March2013 - Opinion That Matters!
From the Odlum Brown March Investment Advisory by Chris Tidd.
be May, as depicted by the arrow. Most of
you have heard the expression “Sell in May
and go away”; that looks to be the mantra
for 2013. While there will be speed-bumps
between now and then the indicated
market top in May suggests the end of any
upward movement for several months, and
the implication of this chart is for a
sizeable correction. At this juncture this
possibility is guiding our thinking."
Interest rates are currently one of the major talking points;
that is, how long can they stay this low? In my opinion they
will stay this low for quite a while yet, probably well into
2015. If we are to believe Mr Bernanke, the head of the US
Federal Reserve, he has no thought yet about taking his foot
of the money-printing pedal, as he stated in the Senate
testimony hearings last week. He will continue the
approximately $100 billion a month buy-back programs he
initiated last Fall. Those programs alone assure us of
continuing low interest rates. Furthermore, until he takes his
foot of the pedal, nobody else can either. The Bank of Canada
has been threatening such a move for almost two years. As
we see it Canada cannot go first on its own. From an
investment standpoint this translates into stable (if not
improving) bond prices and preferred prices."
From the Odlum Brown March Investment Advisory by Chris Tidd.
"From the chart below it appears to me
that the pivotal month in 2013 is likely tobe May, as depicted by the arrow. Most of
you have heard the expression “Sell in May
and go away”; that looks to be the mantra
for 2013. While there will be speed-bumps
between now and then the indicated
market top in May suggests the end of any
upward movement for several months, and
the implication of this chart is for a
sizeable correction. At this juncture this
possibility is guiding our thinking."
"We are taking the capital preservation mode rather than the
wealth creation option. Getting to the last quarter of 2013
with one’s capital intact is our principal objective. The vast
majority of recommendations made in this letter fit the mold
of capital preservation, while still getting paid.Interest rates are currently one of the major talking points;
that is, how long can they stay this low? In my opinion they
will stay this low for quite a while yet, probably well into
2015. If we are to believe Mr Bernanke, the head of the US
Federal Reserve, he has no thought yet about taking his foot
of the money-printing pedal, as he stated in the Senate
testimony hearings last week. He will continue the
approximately $100 billion a month buy-back programs he
initiated last Fall. Those programs alone assure us of
continuing low interest rates. Furthermore, until he takes his
foot of the pedal, nobody else can either. The Bank of Canada
has been threatening such a move for almost two years. As
we see it Canada cannot go first on its own. From an
investment standpoint this translates into stable (if not
improving) bond prices and preferred prices."
Thursday 14March 2013 - Changing Chart Patterns!
There is currently a divergence from the norm developing in the relationship between the US dollar and the SP500 index. Normally they run opposite to each other. When the US equity markets move higher the US dollar moves lower. Currently we have both the SP500 and US dollar in sync with both moving higher.
US Dollar strength indicates a Risk Off trade as Money (Measured in Billions) flows into US Dollars. So US equity markets should be declining as equities are sold to move to the safety of US dollars.
These are Demand-Supply trading forces.
Which One is Wrong??
There is currently a divergence from the norm developing in the relationship between the US dollar and the SP500 index. Normally they run opposite to each other. When the US equity markets move higher the US dollar moves lower. Currently we have both the SP500 and US dollar in sync with both moving higher.
US Dollar strength indicates a Risk Off trade as Money (Measured in Billions) flows into US Dollars. So US equity markets should be declining as equities are sold to move to the safety of US dollars.
These are Demand-Supply trading forces.
Which One is Wrong??
Another trend indicator has long term US treasury bonds selling off (IE interest rates rising).
This indicates a Risk On trade as money moves from fixed income to equity markets.
These are Demand - Supply trading forces.
These 2 indicators are out of Sync.
So Again - Which is the Leading Indicator?
Tuesday, 12 March 2013
Tuesday 12March2013 - Changing Perceptions!
Technical Analysis of Stock Market Patterns is most certainly not a formula driven exact science. However one tries to detect major repetitive patterns and apply them to the current situation to perhaps gain some insight into possible upcoming patterns to be aware of.
Expectations were that the 2008 index highs would not be exceeded; however, they have for the US based stock market indexes. Peter Grandich brought the following big picture analysis forward some time ago before current index prices exceeded the 2008 index highs.
Chartwise, one can extrapoliate that the DJI could easily rise another 10% before hitting the top of the huge Megaphone Top formation that has been devloping since 2000.
A bounce downward off the top trend line of this Megaphone Top Formation could signal a major forthcoming multiyear Bear Market.
Personally I remain very cautious with 30% of total in short term cash equivalents.
Technical Analysis of Stock Market Patterns is most certainly not a formula driven exact science. However one tries to detect major repetitive patterns and apply them to the current situation to perhaps gain some insight into possible upcoming patterns to be aware of.
Expectations were that the 2008 index highs would not be exceeded; however, they have for the US based stock market indexes. Peter Grandich brought the following big picture analysis forward some time ago before current index prices exceeded the 2008 index highs.
Chartwise, one can extrapoliate that the DJI could easily rise another 10% before hitting the top of the huge Megaphone Top formation that has been devloping since 2000.
A bounce downward off the top trend line of this Megaphone Top Formation could signal a major forthcoming multiyear Bear Market.
Personally I remain very cautious with 30% of total in short term cash equivalents.
Monday, 11 March 2013
Monday 11March2013 - What Next For The TSX Venture Index??
It has been a brutal past 2 years for speculators in the junior resource sector.
Or more correctly it has been a brutal 6 years since the TSX Venture Index topped in 2007.
For those gamblers still holding shares of mooooooose pasture companies that are already down 50-90% probably another 30% downside to long term index support around 800 doesn't matter.
Personally I learned my lesson in2008/09 and sold off most of my by then worthless crap that even contined to trade at pennies before delisting (IE Went Broke) in 2009/10.
Where Now??
I was burned once and learned my lesson. (Actually more but 2008/09 was a major burn that left scares)
Now will the speculators/gamblers now burned twice come back again?
Perhaps some will.
How About You?
There will be some HUGE Rock Bottom Bargain Prices at the Bottom.
THE QUESTION IS "WHICH ONES"?
It has been a brutal past 2 years for speculators in the junior resource sector.
Or more correctly it has been a brutal 6 years since the TSX Venture Index topped in 2007.
For those gamblers still holding shares of mooooooose pasture companies that are already down 50-90% probably another 30% downside to long term index support around 800 doesn't matter.
Personally I learned my lesson in2008/09 and sold off most of my by then worthless crap that even contined to trade at pennies before delisting (IE Went Broke) in 2009/10.
Where Now??
I was burned once and learned my lesson. (Actually more but 2008/09 was a major burn that left scares)
Now will the speculators/gamblers now burned twice come back again?
Perhaps some will.
How About You?
There will be some HUGE Rock Bottom Bargain Prices at the Bottom.
THE QUESTION IS "WHICH ONES"?
Monday 11Mar2013 - Stock Market Trends - What Now?
For those sitting on the sidelines with a fair amount of cash earning 1.25% interest it has been difficult to maintain a big picture perspective of the recent equity gains since November 2012.
The Canadian Equity Markets have not fared as well as the US markets. The Canadian TSX Index is dominated by four sectors as illustrated in the following chart. This chart from Danielle Park's Juggling Dynamite website clearly indicates that the only major sector holding up the TSX index is the financials.
The Gold/Precious Metals Sector has been the worst performing. And investors/speculators are asking is this the time to BUY Gold stocks. The chart for Goldcorp presents a specific study of the rewards and risks for an excellent major gold producer.
At current levels it is bottoming near the 1 year support shelf at $32.
On the other hand if Equity Market Index's (SP500, DJI30, TSX) top and drop; then most likely major gold producers such as Goldcorp will continue to trend lower as investors/trader flee to cash.
So What Is One To Do?
If YOU believe that the current worldwide major country debt bubble's will burst in coming years?
Then leverage in. Just take part of your position now. And add to the position when lower support levels are reached or a new weekly uptrend line is formed.
Click to enlarge the chart. When uploading more than one chart to this blog I have difficulty positioning and sizing the other charts.
For those sitting on the sidelines with a fair amount of cash earning 1.25% interest it has been difficult to maintain a big picture perspective of the recent equity gains since November 2012.
The Canadian Equity Markets have not fared as well as the US markets. The Canadian TSX Index is dominated by four sectors as illustrated in the following chart. This chart from Danielle Park's Juggling Dynamite website clearly indicates that the only major sector holding up the TSX index is the financials.
The Gold/Precious Metals Sector has been the worst performing. And investors/speculators are asking is this the time to BUY Gold stocks. The chart for Goldcorp presents a specific study of the rewards and risks for an excellent major gold producer.
At current levels it is bottoming near the 1 year support shelf at $32.
On the other hand if Equity Market Index's (SP500, DJI30, TSX) top and drop; then most likely major gold producers such as Goldcorp will continue to trend lower as investors/trader flee to cash.
So What Is One To Do?
If YOU believe that the current worldwide major country debt bubble's will burst in coming years?
Then leverage in. Just take part of your position now. And add to the position when lower support levels are reached or a new weekly uptrend line is formed.
Click to enlarge the chart. When uploading more than one chart to this blog I have difficulty positioning and sizing the other charts.
Wednesday, 6 March 2013
Saturday, 2 March 2013
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)