Saturday, 30 June 2012
Thursday, 28 June 2012
Thursday 28Jun2012 - Can a Debt Crisis be Cured With More Debt?
Link to Pimco's Bill Gross July Investment Outlook.
http://media.pimco.com/Documents/PIMCO%20IO%20July%20GBL_FINAL.pdf
Link to Pimco's Bill Gross July Investment Outlook.
http://media.pimco.com/Documents/PIMCO%20IO%20July%20GBL_FINAL.pdf
Wednesday, 27 June 2012
27Jun2012 - Opinions That Matter
Europe Soverign Risk Becoming Banking Risk.
Discussion re the European debt crisis.
The European banks are all bankrupt too, partly because they've lent so much capital to bankrupt governments. So you've got two sets of bankrupt institutions trading debt back and forth between themselves. It doesn't help to say that it's the PIIGS that are in the worst shape, because it's the banks in the supposedly wealthier countries that own the PIIGS's debt. They are all tied together.
Personally, I am very cautious at this time for investments. Cash is a position. I just feel that the European ECU leaders are hogtied to the rails of a speeding oncoming train with no options or solutions at hand.
Hopefully the web link below this clip works.
This is the first time I will try to imbed a link to the above interview. Hopefully it works.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/roubini-we-are-heading-for-a-global-perfect-storm-fPAXkJVOTpaqlgZm38eMHg.html
Europe Soverign Risk Becoming Banking Risk.
Discussion re the European debt crisis.
The European banks are all bankrupt too, partly because they've lent so much capital to bankrupt governments. So you've got two sets of bankrupt institutions trading debt back and forth between themselves. It doesn't help to say that it's the PIIGS that are in the worst shape, because it's the banks in the supposedly wealthier countries that own the PIIGS's debt. They are all tied together.
Personally, I am very cautious at this time for investments. Cash is a position. I just feel that the European ECU leaders are hogtied to the rails of a speeding oncoming train with no options or solutions at hand.
Hopefully the web link below this clip works.
This is the first time I will try to imbed a link to the above interview. Hopefully it works.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/roubini-we-are-heading-for-a-global-perfect-storm-fPAXkJVOTpaqlgZm38eMHg.html
Monday, 25 June 2012
Saturday, 23 June 2012
This Can't be True?
From CBC news.
A confidential government report obtained by CBC News reveals federal workers have been booking off sick in record numbers, costing Canadian taxpayers more than $1 billion a year in lost wages alone.
The internal Treasury Board report indicates federal public servants are staying home an average of 18 working days a year, or almost a full month off the job.
That is about 2½ times the average rate of absenteeism in Canadian private industry, and almost twice the level of sick leave and disability claims in the rest of the public sector.
This apparent epidemic of bureaucratic no-shows means that on an average weekday, more federal public servants are off sick than there are employees at Ford Canada and General Motors combined.
Gregory Thomas, head of the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, calls the situation "outrageous."
"We know the population isn't sick 18 days a year; it doesn't make sense.
"The government's got to start treating this money like it's their own money, and they've got to insist that if people are healthy, they come to work. And if people are sick, you've got to make sure they are sick."
From CBC news.
A confidential government report obtained by CBC News reveals federal workers have been booking off sick in record numbers, costing Canadian taxpayers more than $1 billion a year in lost wages alone.
The internal Treasury Board report indicates federal public servants are staying home an average of 18 working days a year, or almost a full month off the job.
That is about 2½ times the average rate of absenteeism in Canadian private industry, and almost twice the level of sick leave and disability claims in the rest of the public sector.
This apparent epidemic of bureaucratic no-shows means that on an average weekday, more federal public servants are off sick than there are employees at Ford Canada and General Motors combined.
Gregory Thomas, head of the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, calls the situation "outrageous."
"We know the population isn't sick 18 days a year; it doesn't make sense.
"The government's got to start treating this money like it's their own money, and they've got to insist that if people are healthy, they come to work. And if people are sick, you've got to make sure they are sick."
Friday, 22 June 2012
Friday 22Jun2012 Chart of the Day
The following chart from todays EWI Financial Forecast Short Term Update.
Minor wave 3 has just started and should approach the October 2011 low.
Elliott Wave International's analysts believe we are in a multiyear secular bear market. They believe the current unfolding bear market will be even worse that the 17 month October 2007 to March 2009 decline. This chart shows the wave sequence for that decline. Notice on the left under the lower case b, the 1 and 2. If you believe/follow Elliott Wave theory, then on the right side we have just completed the same minor waves 1 and 2 and have now started minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (1) of primary wave 3 (circle). Primary wave 1 (circle) was completed in March 2009. The market rally from March 2009 to Early 2012 was nothing more than an extended A, B, C correction within the ongoing multiyear secular bear market that completed primary wave 2 (circle). Also notice how wave 3 is the longest of the 5 wave sequences. Now guess what is coming up later this year or 2013. A minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 (circle). If EWI's forecast plays out then we are in for some very brutal financial investment management times in the coming months.
The following chart from todays EWI Financial Forecast Short Term Update.
Minor wave 3 has just started and should approach the October 2011 low.
Elliott Wave International's analysts believe we are in a multiyear secular bear market. They believe the current unfolding bear market will be even worse that the 17 month October 2007 to March 2009 decline. This chart shows the wave sequence for that decline. Notice on the left under the lower case b, the 1 and 2. If you believe/follow Elliott Wave theory, then on the right side we have just completed the same minor waves 1 and 2 and have now started minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (1) of primary wave 3 (circle). Primary wave 1 (circle) was completed in March 2009. The market rally from March 2009 to Early 2012 was nothing more than an extended A, B, C correction within the ongoing multiyear secular bear market that completed primary wave 2 (circle). Also notice how wave 3 is the longest of the 5 wave sequences. Now guess what is coming up later this year or 2013. A minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 (circle). If EWI's forecast plays out then we are in for some very brutal financial investment management times in the coming months.
Opinion That Matters
The following clip from the June Sprott Asset Mgmt monthly newsletter.
If you want to know what's really going on, listen to the executives of companies that actually produce and sell things. On May 24, Tiffany & Co cut its fiscal-year sales and profit forecasts blaming "slowing growth in key markets like China and weakness in the United States as shoppers think twice about spending on high-end jewelry."18 On June 8th, McDonald's surprised the market with lower than expected same-store sales growth in May, following a lacklustre April sales report that the company stated was "largely due to underperformance in the United States, where consumers continue to seek out very low-priced food."19, 20 On June 13th, Nucor Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker by market value warned that its second-quarter profit will miss its previous guidance after a "surge" in imports undermined prices and "political and economic uncertainty affect buyers' confidence".21 On June 20th, Proctor and Gamble lowered its fourth quarter guidance and profit forecast for 2012. Factors that drove the company's challenges included "slow-to-no GDP growth in developed markets", high unemployment levels, significant commodity cost increases and "highly volatile foreign exchange rates".22 Other companies that have recently lowered guidance include Danone, Nestle, Unilever, Cisco Systems, Dell, Lowe's, and Fedex. It's ugly out there, and many companies are politely warning the market about the type of environment they foresee ahead in both the US and abroad.
To give you a hint of how bad it is in Europe today, the most recent retail sales out of Netherlands showed a decline of 8.7% year-over-year in April.23 In Spain, retail sales fell 9.8% year-on-year in April, which was 6% greater than the revised drop of 3.8% in March.24 Declines of this magnitude are not normal occurrences and signal a significant shift in spending within those countries. We fear this is a sign of things to come within the broader Eurozone, which will only serve to complicate an already dire situation that much more.
The following clip from the June Sprott Asset Mgmt monthly newsletter.
If you want to know what's really going on, listen to the executives of companies that actually produce and sell things. On May 24, Tiffany & Co cut its fiscal-year sales and profit forecasts blaming "slowing growth in key markets like China and weakness in the United States as shoppers think twice about spending on high-end jewelry."18 On June 8th, McDonald's surprised the market with lower than expected same-store sales growth in May, following a lacklustre April sales report that the company stated was "largely due to underperformance in the United States, where consumers continue to seek out very low-priced food."19, 20 On June 13th, Nucor Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker by market value warned that its second-quarter profit will miss its previous guidance after a "surge" in imports undermined prices and "political and economic uncertainty affect buyers' confidence".21 On June 20th, Proctor and Gamble lowered its fourth quarter guidance and profit forecast for 2012. Factors that drove the company's challenges included "slow-to-no GDP growth in developed markets", high unemployment levels, significant commodity cost increases and "highly volatile foreign exchange rates".22 Other companies that have recently lowered guidance include Danone, Nestle, Unilever, Cisco Systems, Dell, Lowe's, and Fedex. It's ugly out there, and many companies are politely warning the market about the type of environment they foresee ahead in both the US and abroad.
To give you a hint of how bad it is in Europe today, the most recent retail sales out of Netherlands showed a decline of 8.7% year-over-year in April.23 In Spain, retail sales fell 9.8% year-on-year in April, which was 6% greater than the revised drop of 3.8% in March.24 Declines of this magnitude are not normal occurrences and signal a significant shift in spending within those countries. We fear this is a sign of things to come within the broader Eurozone, which will only serve to complicate an already dire situation that much more.
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