Wednesday, 24 December 2014
Monday, 15 December 2014
Friday, 5 December 2014
Wednesday, 3 December 2014
Thursday, 20 November 2014
Thursday 20November2014 - 3D Systems (DDD) - What Now?
I still believe 3 D printing will be the future of parts manufacturing.
3D Systems has been a leader in the development and implementation of this manufacturing technology across multiple manufacturing applications.
However, recently the company has run into production delays and competition; which has decimated its stock price.
I have not given up on this company.
80% stock price corrections are not out of the norm.
I still consider 3D Systems one of the major blue chip companies in this space.
I still believe 3 D printing will be the future of parts manufacturing.
3D Systems has been a leader in the development and implementation of this manufacturing technology across multiple manufacturing applications.
However, recently the company has run into production delays and competition; which has decimated its stock price.
I have not given up on this company.
80% stock price corrections are not out of the norm.
I still consider 3D Systems one of the major blue chip companies in this space.
Thursday 20November2014 - A Reminder of What Secular Bear Markets Look Like!
Just a reminder that the current secular bear market is probably not over.
The following chart illustrates the secular bear market from 1965 to 1981. Secular bear markets usually end with P/E ratios around 8 vs the current SP500 around 18. And stock dividend yields are up in the 6-7% level vs the current 2-3% yield.
Personally I believe it is a time to be very conservative and hold a substantial percentage of investment assets in cash or near cash short term quality bonds, etc.
Just a reminder that the current secular bear market is probably not over.
The following chart illustrates the secular bear market from 1965 to 1981. Secular bear markets usually end with P/E ratios around 8 vs the current SP500 around 18. And stock dividend yields are up in the 6-7% level vs the current 2-3% yield.
Personally I believe it is a time to be very conservative and hold a substantial percentage of investment assets in cash or near cash short term quality bonds, etc.
Sunday, 16 November 2014
Monday, 10 November 2014
Monday 10November2014 - Why Privacy Matters!
An eloquent and thought provoking talk at a recent TED conference by Glenn Greenwald on 'Why Privacy Matters.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcSlowAhvUk
An eloquent and thought provoking talk at a recent TED conference by Glenn Greenwald on 'Why Privacy Matters.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcSlowAhvUk
Monday, 3 November 2014
Monday 03November2014 - Gold vs Deflation vs Strong US Dollar!
Precious metals and commodities are not performing well in a world of slow economic growth, asset deflation and a strong US dollar.
Chart from Danielle Park's website for gold and the next price target ranges now that it has broke below the 1180 support level.
Gold is currently trading at 1170US per ounce.
Click image to enlarge.
Precious metals and commodities are not performing well in a world of slow economic growth, asset deflation and a strong US dollar.
Chart from Danielle Park's website for gold and the next price target ranges now that it has broke below the 1180 support level.
Gold is currently trading at 1170US per ounce.
Click image to enlarge.
Thursday, 30 October 2014
Wednesday, 29 October 2014
Wednesday 29October2014 - Global Warming - Another Take! Part 1:
When it comes to the causes of global warming on planet Earth there continues to be an ongoing discussion. Actually it is not a discussion!
Government and private enterprise led by Al Gore are jamming it down our throats that our current warming of planet Earth is directly related to our past and ongoing mishandling of economic and industrial development and management on our planet.
Yes, I do believe that we as a planet of 7 Billion human inhabitants is contributing in a very small way to the warming of our home called Earth.
However I strongly believe that the Sun (Our Sun) of our minuscule planetary system in the Milky Way let alone the total infinite universe plays the dominate part in the alternating cold and warm periods on our planet.
Think about it.
Our planet Earth is 93 million miles from our Sun.
Our planet Earth is a just a tiny dot on the surface of a huge sphere drawn on a huge 186 million diameter sphere from its centre.
Think about how much Energy this tiny dot (our Earth) absorbs 24/7/365/million years.
Think About It: Our SUN over millions of years goes through cycles of varied energy emission.
Think About It: What caused the Ice Age/Tropical Cycles of the Past Thousands/Ten of Thousands of Years.
Watch the following link to get some perspective on how small and minuscule our planet Earth is in relationship to the total Cosmos.
The Cosmos. What is It? How Big is IT? Does it END? Everything we know about is finite. How does something called the Cosmos go on for EVER??
Anyway, watch this link to get some perspective on where Planer Earth in in the Cosmos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17jymDn0W6U&feature=youtu.be
The following excerpts are clips from James Dale Davidson's October 2014 monthly Strategic Investment newsletter. (As far as I know dating back to 1880 James Dale Davidson is not related to me).
When it comes to the causes of global warming on planet Earth there continues to be an ongoing discussion. Actually it is not a discussion!
Government and private enterprise led by Al Gore are jamming it down our throats that our current warming of planet Earth is directly related to our past and ongoing mishandling of economic and industrial development and management on our planet.
Yes, I do believe that we as a planet of 7 Billion human inhabitants is contributing in a very small way to the warming of our home called Earth.
However I strongly believe that the Sun (Our Sun) of our minuscule planetary system in the Milky Way let alone the total infinite universe plays the dominate part in the alternating cold and warm periods on our planet.
Think about it.
Our planet Earth is 93 million miles from our Sun.
Our planet Earth is a just a tiny dot on the surface of a huge sphere drawn on a huge 186 million diameter sphere from its centre.
Think about how much Energy this tiny dot (our Earth) absorbs 24/7/365/million years.
Think About It: Our SUN over millions of years goes through cycles of varied energy emission.
Think About It: What caused the Ice Age/Tropical Cycles of the Past Thousands/Ten of Thousands of Years.
Watch the following link to get some perspective on how small and minuscule our planet Earth is in relationship to the total Cosmos.
The Cosmos. What is It? How Big is IT? Does it END? Everything we know about is finite. How does something called the Cosmos go on for EVER??
Anyway, watch this link to get some perspective on where Planer Earth in in the Cosmos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17jymDn0W6U&feature=youtu.be
The following excerpts are clips from James Dale Davidson's October 2014 monthly Strategic Investment newsletter. (As far as I know dating back to 1880 James Dale Davidson is not related to me).
Wednesday 29Oct2014 - Global Warming - Another Take! Part 3
Watch this web link. It adds perspective to our minuscule place in the infinite universe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17jymDn0W6U&feature=youtu.be
Another Look at The Big Universe and Our Home Planet Earth.
Watch this web link. It adds perspective to our minuscule place in the infinite universe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17jymDn0W6U&feature=youtu.be
Thursday, 23 October 2014
Thursday 23October2014 - Caution from Casey Research!
Casey Research has become very concerned that we are in for some rough sledding in equity markets.
One of their leading indicators is that commodities are all falling, whether it is gasoline, oil, copper, gold, etc. And as well equity markets have become very volatile of late.
A few clips from a recent Casey Research Report:
Casey Research has become very concerned that we are in for some rough sledding in equity markets.
One of their leading indicators is that commodities are all falling, whether it is gasoline, oil, copper, gold, etc. And as well equity markets have become very volatile of late.
A few clips from a recent Casey Research Report:
Wednesday, 22 October 2014
Wednesday 22October2014 - 2007-2009 Bear Market Revisited!
Just a simple chart showing the 17 month bear market of 2007 to 2009.
For most people invested in equity funds and pension plans this washout was devastating both emotionally and financially.
Are we are the verge of another worldwide financial meltdown?
Perhaps.
Will it play out like the 2007-2009 crash?
Probably Not.
I believe this time if it occurs it will occur much faster.
Click image to enlarge. Chart from my stockcharts.com library.
Just a simple chart showing the 17 month bear market of 2007 to 2009.
For most people invested in equity funds and pension plans this washout was devastating both emotionally and financially.
Are we are the verge of another worldwide financial meltdown?
Perhaps.
Will it play out like the 2007-2009 crash?
Probably Not.
I believe this time if it occurs it will occur much faster.
Click image to enlarge. Chart from my stockcharts.com library.
Wednesday 22October2014 - Cause for Concern?
Most broad based mutual funds and exchange traded funds are closet indexers. That is they allocate the portfolios to various market sectors (financials, energy, materials, etc) with the same percentage weightings as the broad TSX index sector weightings.
Currently the financials sector (banks, insurance companies, etc) comprise roughly 38% of the TSX index.
So for example if your mutual fund has 38% of holdings in financial sector stocks and the financials fall by 50% from current levels. Right off the bat this one sector will have decreased the unit price of your mutual fund by 19%. And the other TSX sector stocks will not be standing still. They will be dropping in price as well.
And based on the experience of 2008-09 perhaps one should not have too much faith in the safety of investing in the financial sector.
Chart from Danielle Park's web site.
Click image to enlarge.
Most broad based mutual funds and exchange traded funds are closet indexers. That is they allocate the portfolios to various market sectors (financials, energy, materials, etc) with the same percentage weightings as the broad TSX index sector weightings.
Currently the financials sector (banks, insurance companies, etc) comprise roughly 38% of the TSX index.
So for example if your mutual fund has 38% of holdings in financial sector stocks and the financials fall by 50% from current levels. Right off the bat this one sector will have decreased the unit price of your mutual fund by 19%. And the other TSX sector stocks will not be standing still. They will be dropping in price as well.
And based on the experience of 2008-09 perhaps one should not have too much faith in the safety of investing in the financial sector.
Chart from Danielle Park's web site.
Click image to enlarge.
Monday, 20 October 2014
Monday 20October2014 - The Coming Economic Depression!
The current extraordinary unsustainable levels of debt at all levels. Especially at government and personal levels will be the catalyst that hurtles us into the first greater depression of the 21st Century.
Food for Thought.
Will commodity prices correct to long term norms.
The following long term big picture chart from Danielle Park's web site for copper prices provides a window to the future.
Click image to enlarge.
The current extraordinary unsustainable levels of debt at all levels. Especially at government and personal levels will be the catalyst that hurtles us into the first greater depression of the 21st Century.
Food for Thought.
Will commodity prices correct to long term norms.
The following long term big picture chart from Danielle Park's web site for copper prices provides a window to the future.
Click image to enlarge.
Tuesday, 14 October 2014
Tuesday 14October2014 - Another Look at the 14 Year SP500 Chart!
For the first time in 2 years the SP500 Index has broke below the 40 week Moving Average. However a lot of work needs to be done to the downside before we will know if the start of a historic bear market is underway.
Click image to enlarge.
For the first time in 2 years the SP500 Index has broke below the 40 week Moving Average. However a lot of work needs to be done to the downside before we will know if the start of a historic bear market is underway.
Click image to enlarge.
Tuesday 14October2014 - Canadian Financials and Energy Stocks Rolling Over!
From Danielle Park's web site.
As noted in the charts below, +60% of the TSX Index is currently made up of Financials and Energy. They have a long way to fall before they catch up with the already decimated Materials and Gold sectors.
Click images to enlarge.
From Danielle Park's web site.
As noted in the charts below, +60% of the TSX Index is currently made up of Financials and Energy. They have a long way to fall before they catch up with the already decimated Materials and Gold sectors.
Click images to enlarge.
Saturday, 11 October 2014
Saturday 11Oct2014 - Stock Markets Big Picture Chart!
Recent wide daily swings in stock market index prices are starting to raise concerns and opinions that perhaps a significant stock market correction is in the making.
Regular readers of my thoughts know that I pay a lot of attention to opinions expressed by Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, John Mauldin and Danielle Park. They all believe we are in a 15 - 20 year bear market in equities and that there will be one more major equity market crash to complete the cycle.
One long term chart I keep updated at stockcharts.com is displayed here. I use the SP500 as the major index to chart the 20 week and 40 week moving averages. Crossovers help identify when we are in bull and bear markets. The details are in the comments on the chart.
Click chart to enlarge.
Recent wide daily swings in stock market index prices are starting to raise concerns and opinions that perhaps a significant stock market correction is in the making.
Regular readers of my thoughts know that I pay a lot of attention to opinions expressed by Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, John Mauldin and Danielle Park. They all believe we are in a 15 - 20 year bear market in equities and that there will be one more major equity market crash to complete the cycle.
One long term chart I keep updated at stockcharts.com is displayed here. I use the SP500 as the major index to chart the 20 week and 40 week moving averages. Crossovers help identify when we are in bull and bear markets. The details are in the comments on the chart.
Click chart to enlarge.
Tuesday, 7 October 2014
Sunday, 5 October 2014
Saturday, 20 September 2014
Friday, 19 September 2014
Friday, 12 September 2014
Friday 12Sept2014 - Gold Price Update!
It has not been a good past weeks and months for Gold Bugs.
It appears that Gold has broken down below technical support levels and is headed lower to much lower target points.
The following from EWI Financial Short Term Update.
$1086.60-$1104.70, where wave (5) would be 61.8% of wave (1) and the 50% retracement of the 1999-2011 rally. The next target area is $889.50-$956.00, where wave (5) and (1) would be equal and
the 61.8% retracement of the 1999-2011 advance. It won't be a straight drop to these areas though.
It has not been a good past weeks and months for Gold Bugs.
It appears that Gold has broken down below technical support levels and is headed lower to much lower target points.
The following from EWI Financial Short Term Update.
[Gold]'s break of $1240.62 indicates that Intermediate wave (5) is underway. The initial target range is:
the 61.8% retracement of the 1999-2011 advance. It won't be a straight drop to these areas though.
Friday 12Sept2014 - Update re Long US Dollar/Short Euro Trade!
I have decided to take short term trade profits on Euro and sell position at 19.05US.
There has been a substantial run up in the US dollar vs the Euro and ProShares Ultra Short the Euro vs the US dollar (EUO-NYSE) has had a similar run up that looks like a blowoff.
I look for a correction to buy back into EUO after a decent retraction of the most recent unsustainable surge in share price. If EUO continues to rise - so be it.
Wait for a better entry point to reenter the week to months short term trade.
Charts as follows:
Chart from EWI Short Term Financial Update the Elliott wave pattern and most likely the ending of current wave 3 of 5.
And the second chart showing the June2014 EUO breakout above the 18 month downtrend line and the current $19US stock price.
I think a consolidation back toward the 10 and 20 EMA around $18 would be a reasonable re-entry point to trade this move in the Euro vs the US Dollar.
I have decided to take short term trade profits on Euro and sell position at 19.05US.
There has been a substantial run up in the US dollar vs the Euro and ProShares Ultra Short the Euro vs the US dollar (EUO-NYSE) has had a similar run up that looks like a blowoff.
I look for a correction to buy back into EUO after a decent retraction of the most recent unsustainable surge in share price. If EUO continues to rise - so be it.
Wait for a better entry point to reenter the week to months short term trade.
Charts as follows:
Chart from EWI Short Term Financial Update the Elliott wave pattern and most likely the ending of current wave 3 of 5.
And the second chart showing the June2014 EUO breakout above the 18 month downtrend line and the current $19US stock price.
I think a consolidation back toward the 10 and 20 EMA around $18 would be a reasonable re-entry point to trade this move in the Euro vs the US Dollar.
Wednesday, 10 September 2014
Wednesday 10Sept2014 - Are Stock Markets Due to Decline?
From Elliott Wave Short Term Financial Forecast.
From Elliott Wave Short Term Financial Forecast.
Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave (5) of Primary wave C (circle) of Cycle wave b again stalled at the top line of the parallel channel formed by the Primary wave C (circle) rally from October 2011. Sentiment has remained extreme throughout the year, as the Investors Intelligence Advisors' Survey shows the bullish percentage at over 80% (bull/bull+bears). The initial leg of Cycle wave c will not be a slow, grinding affair: it will be a "collapse," as noted in the new issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist.
Monday, 1 September 2014
Sunday, 24 August 2014
Wednesday, 20 August 2014
Wednesday 20August2014 - Chart of the Day!
For Canucks the trade to be long the US Dollar, which means at opportune times one buys US dollars, and then either just hold them or use them to go short the Euro vs the US dollar with EUO.
This short term trade is now kicking in and working well as the following chart indicates.
For Canucks the trade to be long the US Dollar, which means at opportune times one buys US dollars, and then either just hold them or use them to go short the Euro vs the US dollar with EUO.
This short term trade is now kicking in and working well as the following chart indicates.
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